Offensive Realism and the Insecure Structure of the International System: Artificial Intelligence and Global Hegemony

The development of Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems is driving us to uncharted levels of technological advancement at a very high speed—some claim it could be the last invention humans will ever need to make. Desiderata and appeals for safe, human friendly, and non-militarized AI are abundant; thus we might think that this will occur under an idealist structure and that global security will not be altered. The discipline of international relations provides a different prediction. The theory of Offensive Realism observes that great powers will use their military might to survive in the international system, projecting their military capabilities. This creates a security dilemma and increases insecurity and fear in great powers. This chapter argues that there is no reason to think the use of AI will be different. Under the current international system, the development of powerful AI technology will generate more fear and insecurity within great powers, not less, which means offensive use of militarized AI and an AI security dilemma can be expected. This chapter uses the theory of Offensive Realism to conjecture that powerful militarized AI will generate very unstable and dynamic security dilemmas and, ultimately, could be used by great powers to try to gain not only regional but global hegemony. This could herald a new era that could pose a great challenge to any vision of AI systems aligned to the greater global common good, to principles of global governance, and even to mankind, itself.