HSS: Democracy through Strength: Exiting Authoritarianism in Developmental Asia

Contrary to expectations that authoritarian regimes will only allow democratization as a last resort during times of extreme weakness, authoritarian regimes in Asia have often pursued democratic reforms as a proactive strategy from a position of strength. Indeed, this alternative democratization pathway – democracy through strength – has arguably been the most common manner in which Asian democracies have come about and consolidated. This presentation discusses the historical forces that have facilitated democracy through strength in developmental Asia, as well as the dynamic processes through which authoritarian regimes have either brought it into being or failed to do so. Of central importance is the building up of an authoritarian ruling group’s “victory confidence” and “stability confidence” over time. In other words, democracy through strength requires that authoritarian rulers expect democratization to usher in neither instability nor their own decisive defeat. When democracy is pursued through strength rather than weakness, its central cause is not the threat of popular revolution, but the expectation of political stability in democratization’s wake. After briefly surveying how victory confidence and stability confidence have fostered democracy through strength in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Indonesia, the presentation assesses prospects for ongoing reforms in Burma as well as potential future democratic reforms in cases such as China, Malaysia, and Singapore.