HSS: Mandala Matters: Former Tributary States and Modern Civil Conflict in Thailand

Abstract:

How do historical polities influence modern conflict outcomes? Before Western colonial influence and subsequent transition into modern territorial states, polities in Southeast Asia operated under a tributary governance structure known as the mandala system. As the last kingdom to have abolished traditional Southeast Asian statecraft, Thailand represents an exemplary case in which an area’s local identity, determined by its geographic proximity to the closest historical polity center, still remains influential. Using novel civil conflict data covering 1970-2015, we find that long after Thailand demarcated territorial borders and transitioned to a centralized state in the nineteenth century, proximity to a former tributary state continues to be associated with a strong local identity and higher levels of separatist violence in the peripheries today, controlling for distance to the state capital, borders, and other geographical and socio-economic factors.